{"id":4845,"date":"2022-06-20T15:03:47","date_gmt":"2022-06-20T15:03:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wp.cov19longhaulfoundation.org\/?p=4845"},"modified":"2022-06-20T15:03:47","modified_gmt":"2022-06-20T15:03:47","slug":"this-may-be-the-covid-variant-scientists-are-dreading","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cov19longhaulfoundation.org\/?p=4845","title":{"rendered":"This May Be the COVID Variant Scientists Are Dreading"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a>Authors: David Axe June 20, 2022 TDB<\/p>\n\n\n\n

COVID-19 cases are increasing again in the United Kingdom, potentially signaling a future surge in infections in the United States and other countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A pair of new subvariants of the dominant Omicron variant\u2014BA.4 and BA.5\u2014appear to be driving the uptick in cases in the U.K. Worryingly, these subvariants seem to partially dodge antibodies<\/a> from past infection or vaccination, making them more transmissible than other forms of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are also some suggestions that the new subvariants have evolved to target the lungs<\/a>\u2014unlike Omicron, which usually resulted in a less dangerous infection of the upper respiratory tract.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there\u2019s good news amid the bad. While cases are going up in the U.K., hospitalizations and deaths are increasing more slowly or even declining so far. \u201cThis could mean higher transmissible variants, BA.4 or 5, are in play, [and] these variants are much less severe,\u201d Edwin Michael, an epidemiologist at the Center for Global Health Infectious Disease Research at the University of South Florida, told The Daily Beast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The trends could change, of course, but the decrease in deaths is an encouraging sign that, 31 months into the pandemic, all that immunity we\u2019ve built up\u2013at the cost of half a billion infections<\/a> and tens of billions of dollars\u2019 worth of vaccines\u2014is still mostly<\/em> holding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As far as COVID goes, things were really looking up in the U.K. until recently. COVID cases steadily declined from their recent peak<\/a> of 89,000 daily new infections in mid-March. Deaths from the March wave peaked a month later at around 330 a day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Massive Screwup That Could Let COVID Bypass Our Vaccines<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By early June cases and deaths were near their pandemic lows. Then came BA.4 and BA.5. The grandchildren of the basic Omicron variant that first appeared in the fall of 2021, BA.4 and BA.5 both feature a trio of major mutations to their spike protein, the part of the virus that helps it to grab onto and infect our cells.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eric Bortz, a University of Alaska-Anchorage virologist and public-health expert, described BA.4 and BA.5 as \u201cimmunologically distinct sublineages.\u201d In other words, they interact with our antibodies in surprising new ways.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control\u2014the European Union\u2019s answer to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention\u2014labeled BA.4 and BA.5 \u201cvariants of concerns\u201d<\/a> back in mid-May. Two weeks later the two new subvariants began the gradual process of overtaking older forms of Omicron in the U.K. That\u2019s when cases began increasing again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It doesn\u2019t help that the U.K. like most countries\u2014China is a big exception\u2014has lifted almost all restrictions on schools, businesses, crowds and travel. Those restrictions helped to keep down cases, but were broadly unpopular and came at a high economic cost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere\u2019s a disconnect between the actuality of how infections are happening\u2026 and how people are deciding not to take very many precautions,\u201d John Swartzberg, a professor emeritus of infectious diseases and vaccinology at the University of California-Berkeley’s School of Public Health, told The Daily Beast. He described it as \u201cCOVID fatigue\u2026 100 percent of the world\u2019s population must have it by now.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The combination of a fully reopened economy and new COVID subvariants had an immediate effect. The U.K. Health Security Agency registered 62,228 new infections in the week ending June 10, a 70 percent uptick over the previous week. COVID hospitalizations grew more slowly over the same period, spiking 30 percent to 4,421.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

COVID fatalities actually dropped, however\u2014sliding 10 percent to 283. Deaths tend to lag infections by several weeks, of course, so it should come as no surprise if the death rate flattens or bumps up later this month or early next month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it\u2019s possible it won\u2019t. Yes, BA.4 and BA.5 are more transmissible, owing to that mutated spike protein. But that doesn\u2019t mean they\u2019re going to kill a lot of people. Despite their unusual qualities, it could be that BA.4 and BA.5 aren\u2019t actually more dangerous than previous subvariants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bortz sketched out one possibility, that BA.4 and BA.5 are \u201cimmune-evasive enough to infect, but generally not evasive enough to counteract acquired immunity from vaccines and\/or prior infection.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, immunity varies from community to community, country to country. The U.K.\u2019s 67 million people have, for their part, built up pretty serious immunity over the past two-and-a-half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tens of millions of U.K. residents have natural antibodies from past infection. 87 percent of the population is fully vaccinated. 68 percent is boosted. All those antibodies might not prevent breakthrough infections, but they do tend to prevent serious <\/em>breakthrough infections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How bad the current surge in cases gets depends to a great extent on the durability of those antibodies. Immunity, whether from past infection or vaccines, tends to wane over time. But how fast it wanes, and to what effect, is unpredictable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s possible widespread immunity holds and the swelling BA.4 and BA.5 wave in the U.K. crests in a few weeks without making a whole lot more people sick\u2014or killing them. That\u2019s the best-case scenario given the lack of political will, and public support, for a new round of restrictions. \u201cIf higher cases would not lead to significant disease or deaths, then we may be able to live with this virus,\u201d Michael said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The worst-case scenario is that BA.4 and BA.5 prove more capable of evading our antibodies than experts currently anticipate. Keep an eye on the hospitalization stats. If COVID hospitalizations start increasing in proportion to the growth in cases, it\u2019s a sign the new sublineages are dodging our hard-won immunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In that case, a big spike in deaths is sure to follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That could be a big red flag for the Americas. COVID variants tend to travel from east to west, globally. New variants and subvariants tend to appear in the United States a few weeks after becoming dominant in the U.K. At present, BA.4 and BA.5 account for just a fifth of new cases<\/a> in the U.S. Expect that proportion to increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The problem for Americans is that they\u2019re much less protected than Britons. Yes, Americans have a lot of antibodies from past infection, but they\u2019re also a lot less likely to be vaccinated\u2014and even less <\/em>likely to be boosted. Just 67 percent of Americans are fully vaxxed.<\/a> A little over a third of the U.S. population has gotten a booster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So if BA.4 and BA.5 end up causing a surge in deaths in the U.K., they\u2019re likely to inflict an even greater <\/em>death toll on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. \u201cWe\u2019re sort of in this zone now, betwixt and between,\u201d Swartzberg said. \u201cIt\u2019s unclear which way things are going to go.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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