Many of the excess deaths appear to be from heart and circulatory diseases. Recent heatwaves may have contributed negatively to this \u2013 warmer weather has long been associated with excess deaths. But the current bulge in excess deaths can be traced back to April, long before the heatwave. There have been suggestions that Covid could have weakened people\u2019s health and that we are seeing a delayed reaction to being infected with the virus. Others point to delays in NHS treatment, with long waits in A&E.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/aorwZ\/1\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n But the possibility remains that we are seeing the result of lockdowns \u2013 in particular, the failure of people to seek treatment or the difficulty of obtaining a consultation when we were all ordered to stay at home. The first lockdown, for example, resulted<\/a> in a 33 per cent fall in diagnosis of early-stage cancers. The government was forced to change its messaging when it became clear that telling people to \u2018stay at home\u2019 and \u2018protect the NHS\u2019 was dissuading many from seeking treatment, even when they had ominous symptoms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n That lockdowns could themselves cause significant excess deaths was suspected by the government. In July 2020, the Department for Health quietly published<\/a> a study which concluded that the number of Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYS) from the indirect effects of the pandemic could eventually outstrip the number of QALYS which had been lost to Covid at that point. Covid, it estimated, would cost 530,000 QALYS. But 41,000 would be lost to reduced access to A&E, 73,000 lost to early discharge from hospital and reduced access to primary care services and 45,000 would be lost to delays in elective surgery. An additional 157,000 QALYS would eventually be lost to the effects of recession \u2013 and 294,000 to deprivation as a result of lower economic growth in the long term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is just modelling, of course \u2013 the limitations of which became plain during the pandemic. Moreover, not all these effects can be laid at the door of the government\u2019s decision to order a lockdown. Had the NHS become overwhelmed by Covid cases, there would have been all manner of delays to treatment for other conditions. Lockdown or not, the economy would have taken a hit \u2013 although Sweden, which decided against the measure, suffered a lot less, in economic terms, than Britain and other European countries which did call lockdowns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"http:\/\/wp.cov19longhaulfoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/deathgraph-1024x607.png\")
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