{"id":9690,"date":"2024-07-16T06:01:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-16T11:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cov19longhaulfoundation.org\/?p=9690"},"modified":"2024-06-07T11:16:11","modified_gmt":"2024-06-07T16:16:11","slug":"why-the-pandemic-probably-started-in-a-lab-in-5-key-points","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cov19longhaulfoundation.org\/?p=9690","title":{"rendered":"Why the Pandemic Probably Started in a Lab, in 5 Key Points"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\"><strong>By Alina Chan<\/strong>, Dr. Chan is a molecular biologist at the Broad Institute of M.I.T. and Harvard, and a co-author of \u201cViral: The Search for the Origin of Covid-19.\u201d, June 3, 2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On Monday, Dr. Anthony Fauci returned to the halls of Congress and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/live\/nvQTXAgtA6s?feature=shared&amp;t=3086\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">testified before the House subcommittee<\/a>&nbsp;investigating the Covid-19 pandemic. He was questioned about several topics related to the government\u2019s handling of Covid-19, including how the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which he directed until retiring in 2022, supported risky virus work at a Chinese institute whose research may have caused the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For more than four years, reflexive partisan politics have derailed the search for the truth about a catastrophe that has touched us all. It has been estimated that&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/excess-mortality-covid\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">at least 25 million people<\/a>&nbsp;around the world have died because of Covid-19, with over a million of those deaths in the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although how the pandemic started has been hotly debated, a growing volume of evidence \u2014 gleaned from public records released under the Freedom of Information Act, digital sleuthing through online databases, scientific papers analyzing the virus and its spread, and leaks from within the U.S. government \u2014 suggests that the pandemic most likely occurred because a virus escaped from a research lab in Wuhan, China. If so, it would be the most costly accident in the history of science.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s what we now know:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1<strong>The SARS-like virus that caused the pandemic emerged in Wuhan, the city where the world\u2019s foremost research lab for SARS-like viruses is located.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>At the Wuhan Institute of Virology,\u00a0<strong>a team of scientists had been hunting for SARS-like viruses<\/strong>\u00a0for over a decade, led by Shi Zhengli.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Their research showed that\u00a0<strong>the\u00a0<\/strong><strong>viruses most similar to SARS\u2011CoV\u20112, the virus that caused the pandemic,\u00a0<\/strong><strong>circulate in bats that live<\/strong><strong>\u00a0r<\/strong><strong>oughly 1,000 miles\u00a0<\/strong><strong>away from Wuhan.<\/strong>\u00a0Scientists from Dr. Shi\u2019s team traveled repeatedly to Yunnan province to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC7106260\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">collect these viruses<\/a>\u00a0and had expanded their search to Southeast Asia. Bats in other parts of China have not been found to carry viruses that are as closely related to SARS-CoV-2.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/cEv0Y\/54262180ae5367f0aa8a14b02cf42f42e1dd16c7.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/cEv0Y\/5424ee5fdec7a2018b4506d91c30080a6425cb47.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/cEv0Y\/41e025b422c717f22b18022c0543ba9c59efa6ef.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>A map showing the closest known relatives of SARS-CoV-2 in a mine in the Yunnan province of China and in a cave in northern Laos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A map showing the hundreds of large cities in China and the surrounding region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A map showing the 950 miles between Yunnan and Wuhan, and the 1,190 miles between Laos and Wuhan. There are many cities in between.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Even at hot spots where these viruses exist naturally near the cave bats of southwestern China and Southeast Asia, the scientists argued,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC7148670\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">as recently as 2019<\/a>, that\u00a0<strong>bat coronavirus spillover into humans is rare<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>When the Covid-19 outbreak was detected,\u00a0<strong>Dr. Shi initially wondered if the novel coronavirus had come from her laboratory<\/strong>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/article\/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">saying<\/a>\u00a0she had never expected such an outbreak to occur in Wuhan.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The SARS\u2011CoV\u20112 virus is exceptionally contagious and can\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/vis.csh.ac.at\/sars-ani\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">jump from species to species like wildfire<\/a>. Yet\u00a0<strong>it\u00a0<\/strong><strong>left no known trace of infection at its source or anywhere along<\/strong><strong>\u00a0what would have been a thousand-mile journey<\/strong>\u00a0before emerging in Wuhan.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2<strong>The year before the outbreak, the Wuhan institute, working with U.S. partners, had proposed creating viruses with SARS\u2011CoV\u20112\u2019s defining feature.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dr. Shi\u2019s group was fascinated by how coronaviruses jump from species to species. To find viruses,\u00a0<strong>they\u00a0<\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=MNkyeUZHUoU\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">took samples from bats and other animals<\/a><\/strong><strong>, as well as from\u00a0<\/strong><strong>sick people<\/strong>\u00a0living near animals carrying these viruses or associated with the wildlife trade. Much of this work was conducted in partnership with the EcoHealth Alliance, a U.S.-based scientific organization that, since 2002, has been awarded over $80 million in federal funding to research the risks of emerging infectious diseases.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>The laboratory pursued risky research that resulted in viruses becoming more infectious<\/strong>: Coronaviruses were grown from samples from infected animals and genetically\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/journals.plos.org\/plospathogens\/article?id=10.1371\/journal.ppat.1006698\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">reconstructed and recombined<\/a>\u00a0to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/nm.3985\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">create new viruses<\/a>\u00a0unknown in nature. These new viruses were\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC4810638\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">passed through cells<\/a>\u00a0from bats, pigs, primates and humans and were used to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.science.org\/pb-assets\/PDF\/News%20PDFs\/Shi%20Zhengli%20Q&amp;A-1630433861.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">infect civets and humanized mice<\/a>\u00a0(mice modified with human genes). In essence, this process forced these viruses to adapt to new host species, and the viruses with mutations that allowed them to thrive emerged as victors.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>By 2019, Dr. Shi\u2019s group had\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/jPPkB#selection-939.0-939.315\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">published a database<\/a>\u00a0describing more than 22,000 collected wildlife samples. But external access was shut off in the fall of 2019, and\u00a0<strong>the database was\u00a0<\/strong><strong>not shared<\/strong><strong>\u00a0with American\u00a0<\/strong><strong>collaborators\u00a0<\/strong><strong>even after the pandemic started<\/strong>, when such a rich virus collection would have been most useful in tracking the origin of SARS\u2011CoV\u20112. It remains unclear whether the Wuhan institute possessed a precursor of the pandemic virus.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In 2021, The Intercept published a leaked 2018\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/theintercept.com\/2021\/09\/23\/coronavirus-research-grant-darpa\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">grant proposal for a research project named Defuse<\/a>, which had been written as a collaboration between EcoHealth, the Wuhan institute and Ralph Baric at the University of North Carolina, who had been on the cutting edge of coronavirus research for years.\u00a0<strong>The proposal described plans to create viruses strikingly\u00a0<\/strong><strong>similar<\/strong><strong>\u00a0to SARS\u2011CoV\u20112.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Coronaviruses bear their name because their surface is studded with protein spikes, like a spiky crown, which they use to enter animal cells.\u00a0<strong>T<\/strong><strong>he Defuse project proposed to search for and create SARS-like viruses carrying spikes with a unique feature: a furin cleavage site<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 the same feature that enhances SARS\u2011CoV\u20112\u2019s infectiousness in humans, making it capable of causing a pandemic. Defuse was\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/drasticresearch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/hr00118s017-preempt-fp-019-pm-summary-selectable-not-recommended.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">never funded by the United States<\/a>. However, in his testimony on Monday, Dr. Fauci explained that the Wuhan institute would not need to rely on U.S. funding to pursue research independently.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The Wuhan lab ran risky experiments to learn how SARS-like viruses might infect humans. Their research started by collecting SARS-like viruses from bats and other wild animals, as well as from people exposed to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Next, they would identify high-risk viruses by screening for spike proteins that facilitate infection of human cells.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then they would create new coronaviruses by inserting spike proteins or other features that could make the viruses more infectious in humans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, they would infect human cells, civets and humanized mice with the new coronaviruses, to determine how dangerous they might be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>While it\u2019s possible that the furin cleavage site could have evolved naturally (as seen in some distantly related coronaviruses),\u00a0<strong>out of the hundreds<\/strong><strong>\u00a0of<\/strong><strong>\u00a0SARS-like viruses<\/strong><strong>\u00a0cataloged<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>by scientists, SARS\u2011CoV\u20112 is\u00a0<\/strong><strong>the only\u00a0<\/strong><strong>one known to possess\u00a0<\/strong><strong>a furin cleavage site<\/strong>\u00a0in its spike. And the genetic data suggest that the virus had only\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/observatoriocovid19.sv\/doc\/biblioteca\/internac\/Adaptation_sars_covid.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">recently gained<\/a>\u00a0the furin cleavage site before it started the pandemic.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ultimately, a never-before-seen SARS-like virus with a newly introduced furin cleavage site, matching the description in the Wuhan institute\u2019s Defuse proposal,\u00a0<strong>caused an outbreak in Wuhan less than two years after the proposal<\/strong>\u00a0was drafted.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>When the Wuhan scientists published their\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/32015507\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">seminal paper<\/a>\u00a0about Covid-19 as the pandemic roared to life in 2020,\u00a0<strong>they did not mention the virus\u2019s furin cleavage site<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 a feature they should have been on the lookout for, according to their own grant proposal, and a feature quickly recognized by other scientists.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Worse still, as the pandemic raged, their American collaborators failed to publicly reveal the existence of the Defuse proposal. The president of EcoHealth, Peter Daszak, recently admitted to Congress that he\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/live\/Gj9M5CJGykk?feature=shared&amp;t=8821\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">doesn\u2019t know about virus samples<\/a>\u00a0collected by the Wuhan institute after 2015 and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/live\/Gj9M5CJGykk?feature=shared&amp;t=9696\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">never asked<\/a>\u00a0the lab\u2019s scientists if they had started the work described in Defuse. In May, citing failures in EcoHealth\u2019s monitoring of risky experiments conducted at the Wuhan lab,\u00a0<strong>the Biden administration\u00a0<\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/oversight.house.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Tab-1-EHA-SUSP4D-Notice_5.15.2024_signed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">suspended all federal funding<\/a><\/strong><strong>\u00a0for the organization and Dr. Daszak,<\/strong>\u00a0and initiated proceedings to bar them from receiving future grants. In his testimony on Monday, Dr. Fauci said that he supported the decision to suspend and bar EcoHealth.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Separately, Dr. Baric described the competitive dynamic between his research group and the institute when he\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/oversight.house.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Baric-TI-Transcript.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">told Congress<\/a>\u00a0that\u00a0<strong>the Wuhan scientists would probably not have shared their\u00a0<\/strong><strong>most interesting<\/strong><strong>\u00a0newly discovered viruses with him<\/strong>. Documents and email correspondence between the institute and Dr. Baric are still being withheld from the public while their release is\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/garyruskin\/status\/1752460681432244247\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">fiercely contested<\/a>\u00a0in litigation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In the end, American partners very likely knew of only a fraction of the research done in Wuhan. According to U.S. intelligence sources,\u00a0<strong>some of<\/strong><strong>\u00a0the institute\u2019s virus research was\u00a0<\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/asia_pacific\/wuhan-lab-leak-secret-coronavirus\/2021\/06\/22\/b9c45940-cf08-11eb-a224-bd59bd22197c_story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">classified<\/a><\/strong><strong>\u00a0or conducted with or on behalf of the Chinese military<\/strong>. In the congressional hearing on Monday, Dr. Fauci repeatedly acknowledged the lack of visibility into experiments conducted at the Wuhan institute, saying, \u201cNone of us can know everything that\u2019s going on in China, or in Wuhan, or what have you. And that\u2019s the reason why \u2014 I say today, and I\u2019ve said at the T.I.,\u201d referring to his transcribed interview with the subcommittee, \u201cI keep an open mind as to what the origin is.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3<strong>The Wuhan lab pursued this type of work under low biosafety conditions that could not have contained an airborne virus as infectious as SARS\u2011CoV\u20112.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In the U.S., virologists generally use stricter Biosafety Level 3 protocols, which involves using personal respirators and biosafety cabinets in combination to avoid inhaling an airborne virus, as well as wearing gloves and wraparound gowns to prevent direct contact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Wuhan lab was regularly working with SARS-like viruses at Biosafety Level 2, which involves work done in the open air and doesn\u2019t require masks, allowing for inhalation of viral particles, and much less protective equipment worn on the body that allows for direct skin contact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In one experiment, Dr. Shi\u2019s group genetically engineered\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/theintercept.com\/2021\/09\/09\/covid-origins-gain-of-function-research\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">an unexpectedly\u00a0<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/theintercept.com\/2021\/09\/09\/covid-origins-gain-of-function-research\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">deadly<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/theintercept.com\/2021\/09\/09\/covid-origins-gain-of-function-research\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u00a0<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/theintercept.com\/2021\/09\/09\/covid-origins-gain-of-function-research\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">SARS-like virus<\/a>\u00a0(not closely related to SARS\u2011CoV\u20112) that exhibited\u00a0<strong>a 10,000-fold increase in the quantity of virus in the lungs and brains of humanized mice<\/strong>. Wuhan institute scientists\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.minerva.no\/china-drastic-sars-cov-2\/chinese-researchers-created-new-corona-viruses-under-unsafe-conditions\/381476\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">handled these live viruses at low biosafet<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.minerva.no\/china-drastic-sars-cov-2\/chinese-researchers-created-new-corona-viruses-under-unsafe-conditions\/381476\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">y levels<\/a>, including BSL-2.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Even the much more stringent containment at\u00a0<strong>BSL-3\u00a0<\/strong><strong>cannot\u00a0<\/strong><strong>fully prevent SARS\u2011CoV\u20112 from escaping<\/strong>. Two years into the pandemic, the virus\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/taiwan-s-science-academy-fined-biosafety-lapses-after-lab-worker-contracts-covid-19\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">infected<\/a>\u00a0a scientist in a BSL-3 laboratory in Taiwan, which was, at the time, a zero-Covid country. The scientist had been vaccinated and was tested only after losing the sense of smell. By then, more than 100 close contacts had been exposed. Human error is a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/thebulletin.org\/2019\/02\/human-error-in-high-biocontainment-labs-a-likely-pandemic-threat\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">source of exposure<\/a>\u00a0even at\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/laninf\/article\/PIIS1473-3099(04)00911-9\/fulltext\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the highest biosafety levels<\/a>, and the risks are much greater for scientists working with infectious pathogens at low biosafety.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>An\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/usrtk.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/USGS-DEFUSE-2021-006245-Combined-Records_Redacted.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">early draft<\/a>\u00a0of the Defuse proposal stated that the Wuhan lab would do their virus work at BSL-2 to make it \u201chighly cost-effective.\u201d Dr. Baric added a note to the draft highlighting the importance of using BSL-3 to contain SARS-like viruses that could infect human cells, writing that \u201cU.S. researchers will likely freak out.\u201d Years later, after SARS\u2011CoV\u20112 had killed millions,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.vanityfair.com\/news\/story\/ralph-baric-wuhan-lab-leak\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Dr. Baric wrote to Dr. Daszak<\/a>: \u201cI have no doubt that they followed state determined rules and did the work under BSL-2. Yes China has the right to set their own policy.\u00a0<strong>You believe this was appropriate containment if you want but don\u2019t expect me to believe it.<\/strong>\u00a0Moreover, don\u2019t insult my intelligence by trying to feed me this load of BS.\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>SARS\u2011CoV\u20112 is a stealthy virus that transmits effectively through the air, causes a range of symptoms similar to those of other common respiratory diseases and can be spread by infected people before symptoms even appear.\u00a0<strong>If the virus had escaped from a BSL-2 laboratory in 2019, the leak most likely would have gone undetected<\/strong>\u00a0until too late.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>One alarming detail \u2014 leaked to The Wall Street Journal and confirmed by current and former U.S. government officials \u2014 is that\u00a0<strong>scientists on Dr. Shi\u2019s team\u00a0<\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/u-s-funded-scientist-among-three-chinese-researchers-who-fell-ill-amid-early-covid-19-outbreak-3f919567\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">fell ill with Covid-like symptoms<\/a><\/strong><strong>\u00a0in the fall of 2019<\/strong>. One of the scientists had been named in the Defuse proposal as the person in charge of virus discovery work. The scientists\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/ridiculous-says-chinese-scientist-accused-being-pandemic-s-patient-zero\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">denied having been sick<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4<strong>The hypothesis that Covid-19 came from an animal at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan is not supported by strong evidence.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In December 2019,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/journals.asm.org\/doi\/10.1128\/mbio.00313-23\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Chinese investigators assumed<\/a>\u00a0the outbreak had started at a centrally located market frequented by thousands of visitors daily.\u00a0<strong>This\u00a0<\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/journals.asm.org\/doi\/10.1128\/mbio.00313-23\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">bias in<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jrsssa\/advance-article-abstract\/doi\/10.1093\/jrsssa\/qnae021\/7632556?redirectedFrom=fulltext&amp;login=false\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">their search<\/a><\/strong><strong>\u00a0for early cases<\/strong><strong>\u00a0meant that cases unlinked to or located far away from the market would very likely have been missed.<\/strong>\u00a0To make things worse, the Chinese authorities blocked the reporting of early cases not linked to the market and, claiming biosafety precautions, ordered\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/china-acknowledges-destroying-early-coronavirus-samples-confirming-us-accusation-1504484\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the destruction of patient samples<\/a>\u00a0on January 3, 2020, making it nearly impossible to see the complete picture of the earliest Covid-19 cases. Information about\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/2022\/11\/17\/covid-early-cases-wuhan-china-mystery\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">dozens of early cases<\/a>\u00a0from November and December 2019 remains inaccessible.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/science.abp8715\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">pair<\/a>\u00a0of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/science.abp8337\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">papers<\/a>\u00a0published in Science in 2022 made the best case for SARS\u2011CoV\u20112 having emerged naturally from human-animal contact at the Wuhan market by focusing on a map of the early cases and asserting that the virus had jumped from animals into humans twice at the market in 2019. More recently, the two papers have been\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jrsssa\/advance-article-abstract\/doi\/10.1093\/jrsssa\/qnad139\/7557954\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">countered<\/a>\u00a0by\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/ve\/article\/10\/1\/vead089\/7504441?login=false\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">other virologists<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2036-7481\/14\/1\/33\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">and scientists<\/a>\u00a0who\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-023-06043-2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">convincingly demonstrate<\/a>\u00a0that\u00a0<strong>the\u00a0<\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0013935122010295?via%3Dihub\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">available market evidence<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/ve\/article\/9\/2\/vead050\/7249794\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">does not distinguish<\/a><\/strong><strong>\u00a0between a human superspreader event and a natural spillover<\/strong>\u00a0at the market.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Furthermore, the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/mbe\/article\/38\/12\/5211\/6353034\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">existing genetic<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/article\/S0140-6736(20)30183-5\/fulltext\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">early case data<\/a>\u00a0show that all known Covid-19 cases probably stem from\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/ve\/article\/10\/1\/veae020\/7619252\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">a single introduction<\/a>\u00a0of SARS\u2011CoV\u20112 into people, and\u00a0<strong>the outbreak at the Wuhan market probably happened after the virus had already been circulating<\/strong>\u00a0in humans.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>An analysis of SARS-CoV-2\u2019s evolutionary tree shows how the virus evolved as it started to spread through humans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The viruses that infected people linked to the market fall partway down this tree, suggesting that they were most likely not the earliest form of the virus that seeded the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Not a single infected animal has ever been confirmed at the market or in its supply chain.\u00a0<\/strong>Without good evidence that the pandemic started at the Huanan Seafood Market, the fact that the virus emerged in Wuhan points squarely at its unique SARS-like virus laboratory.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5<strong>Key evidence that would be expected if the virus had emerged from the wildlife trade is still missing.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In the SARS and MERS epidemics, scientists were able to find key pieces of evidence that demonstrated a natural origin of the virus. They found infected animals, the earliest human cases were exposed to animals, there was antibody evidence in animal traders, ancestral variants were found in animals, and there was documented trade of host animals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For SARS-CoV-2, all of these pieces of evidence are missing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Despite the intense search trained on the animal trade and people linked to the market,\u00a0<strong>investigators have not reported\u00a0<\/strong><strong>finding\u00a0<\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.who.int\/publications\/i\/item\/who-convened-global-study-of-origins-of-sars-cov-2-china-part\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">any animals infected with SARS\u2011CoV\u20112<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0that had not been infected by humans. Yet, infected animal sources and other connective pieces of evidence were found for the earlier\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/thebulletin.org\/2022\/03\/the-origins-of-sars-cov-2-still-to-be-determined\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">SARS<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/full\/10.1056\/NEJMoa1401505\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">and<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.cidrap.umn.edu\/mers-cov\/jordanian-saudi-camels-have-mers-cov-antibodies\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">MERS<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC7102853\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">outbreaks<\/a>\u00a0as\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/pmid\/16485471\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">quickly<\/a>\u00a0as within a few days, despite the less advanced viral forensic technologies of two decades ago.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Even though Wuhan is the home base of virus hunters with world-leading expertise in tracking novel SARS-like viruses,\u00a0<strong>investigators have either failed to collect or report key evidence that would be expected if Covid-19 emerged from the wildlife trade<\/strong>. For example, investigators have not determined that the earliest known cases had exposure to intermediate host animals before falling ill. No antibody evidence shows that animal traders in Wuhan are regularly exposed to SARS-like viruses,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/mmwr\/preview\/mmwrhtml\/mm5241a2.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">as would be expected<\/a>\u00a0in such situations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>With today\u2019s technology, scientists can detect how respiratory viruses \u2014 including SARS, MERS and the flu \u2014 circulate in animals while making repeated attempts to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/flu\/avianflu\/mammals.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">jump across species<\/a>. Thankfully, these variants usually fail to transmit well after crossing over to a new species and tend to die off after a small number of infections. In contrast, virologists and other scientists agree that SARS\u2011CoV\u20112 required little to no adaptation to spread rapidly in humans and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/33711012\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">other animals<\/a>.\u00a0<strong>The virus appears to have succeeded in causing a pandemic upon its only detected jump into humans.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The pandemic could have been caused by any of hundreds of virus species, at any of tens of thousands of wildlife markets, in any of thousands of cities, and in any year. But it was a SARS-like coronavirus with a unique furin cleavage site that emerged in Wuhan, less than two years after scientists, sometimes working under inadequate biosafety conditions, proposed collecting and creating viruses of that same design.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While several natural spillover scenarios remain plausible, and we still don\u2019t know enough about the full extent of virus research conducted at the Wuhan institute by Dr. Shi\u2019s team and other researchers, a laboratory accident is the most parsimonious explanation of how the pandemic began.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Given what we now know, investigators should follow their strongest leads and subpoena all exchanges between the Wuhan scientists and their international partners, including unpublished research proposals, manuscripts, data and commercial orders. In particular, exchanges from 2018 and 2019 \u2014 the critical two years before the emergence of Covid-19 \u2014 are very likely to be illuminating (and require no cooperation from the Chinese government to acquire), yet they remain beyond the public\u2019s view more than four years after the pandemic began.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Whether the pandemic started on a lab bench or in a market stall, it is undeniable that U.S. federal funding helped to build an unprecedented collection of SARS-like viruses at the Wuhan institute, as well as contributing to research that&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/theintercept.com\/2021\/09\/09\/covid-origins-gain-of-function-research\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">enhanced them<\/a>. Advocates and funders of the institute\u2019s research, including Dr. Fauci, should cooperate with the investigation to help identify and close the loopholes that allowed such dangerous work to occur. The world must not continue to bear the intolerable risks of&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/o\/cEv0Y\/https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/a-flu-virus-risk-worth-taking\/2011\/12\/30\/gIQAM9sNRP_story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">research with the potential to cause pandemics<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A successful investigation of the pandemic\u2019s root cause would have the power to break a decades-long scientific impasse on pathogen research safety, determining how governments will spend billions of dollars to prevent future pandemics. A credible investigation would also deter future acts of negligence and deceit by demonstrating that it is indeed possible to be held accountable for causing a viral pandemic. Last but not least, people of all nations need to see their leaders \u2014 and especially, their scientists \u2014 heading the charge to find out what caused this world-shaking event. Restoring public trust in science and government leadership requires it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A thorough investigation by the U.S. government could unearth more evidence while spurring whistleblowers to find their courage and seek their moment of opportunity. It would also show the world that U.S. leaders and scientists are not afraid of what the truth behind the pandemic may be.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Alina Chan, Dr. Chan is a molecular biologist at the Broad Institute of M.I.T. and Harvard, and a co-author of \u201cViral: The Search for the Origin of Covid-19.\u201d, June [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":9692,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[272,651],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9690","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-lab-leak","category-wuhan-labs"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cov19longhaulfoundation.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9690","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cov19longhaulfoundation.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cov19longhaulfoundation.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cov19longhaulfoundation.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cov19longhaulfoundation.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9690"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/cov19longhaulfoundation.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9690\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9691,"href":"https:\/\/cov19longhaulfoundation.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9690\/revisions\/9691"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cov19longhaulfoundation.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/9692"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cov19longhaulfoundation.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9690"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cov19longhaulfoundation.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9690"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cov19longhaulfoundation.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9690"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}