John Murphy, President, The COVID-19 Long-haul Foundation

This Friday, the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) will convene in Atlanta for what may be one of its most consequential meetings since the onset of the pandemic. The agenda is packed: updates on COVID-19 epidemiology, vaccine safety and effectiveness, and the economics of vaccination will be presented, followed by a proposed recommendation from Retsef Levi, the newly appointed chair of the ACIP COVID-19 workgroup. A vote is expected to follow.

But this is no routine policy update. The meeting comes amid a dramatic shift in federal vaccine strategy under Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has restructured the ACIP with appointees known for their skepticism of COVID-19 vaccines2. The CDC, following Kennedy’s directive, stopped recommending COVID-19 vaccination for healthy children and pregnant women earlier this summer. In August, the FDA further narrowed vaccine eligibility to those aged 65 and older or younger individuals with at least one risk factor, such as obesity3.

Historically, ACIP has issued vaccine recommendations ahead of FDA decisions, shaping national policy and insurance coverage. This year, however, the committee remained silent until after the FDA’s move—an unusual reversal that underscores the tension between scientific consensus and political influence.

The panel’s composition now includes figures like Levi, who has previously called for removing two of the three COVID-19 vaccines from the market, and Dr. Robert Malone, who has publicly questioned their effectiveness. Several newly appointed members have expressed similar views, raising concerns that the committee may endorse further restrictions on vaccine access.

The implications are far-reaching. In states where pharmacists require ACIP recommendations to administer vaccines, a narrower endorsement could limit availability. Conversely, ACIP could vote for broader access than the FDA’s clearance, though that seems unlikely given the panel’s current makeup. Organizations like the American Academy of Pediatrics continue to recommend vaccination for younger populations, but their influence may be diminished in the current climate.

🔮 Likely Outcome: A Restrictive Turn

Given the ideological leanings of the restructured ACIP and the political momentum behind Kennedy’s vaccine policy overhaul, the most probable outcome of Friday’s meeting is a recommendation that aligns with—or even tightens—the FDA’s narrowed clearance. This could mean formal guidance limiting COVID-19 vaccination to older adults and high-risk individuals, excluding healthy children and pregnant women entirely.

Such a move would mark a significant departure from previous public health strategies and could reshape vaccine access heading into the fall season, when respiratory viruses typically surge. It may also deepen the divide between federal policy and medical organizations still advocating for broader protection.

In short, Friday’s meeting is not just a procedural update—it’s a referendum on the future of COVID-19 vaccination in the United States.